Allies of Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass are growing increasingly anxious about her reelection prospects, expressing rising concern that progressive challenger Nithya Raman is seizing critical momentum in the high-stakes mayoral race. While Bass’s inner circle long projected confidence that the incumbent would easily overcome her weak public approval numbers, that certainty is rapidly eroding among key supporters who now view the contest as genuinely vulnerable.
The shift in sentiment comes despite public and private polling that continues to show the mayor holding an advantage. In a late July survey, Bass maintained a mid-single-digit lead over Raman, and other private polling has similarly placed the incumbent ahead. Nevertheless, insiders acknowledge that this narrow margin leaves little room for error, particularly as the enthusiasm and ground-level energy across the city appear to be gravitating toward her opponent.
Confidants close to the mayor are voicing rare public and private pessimism regarding the trajectory of the contest. One Bass ally, speaking on the condition of anonymity, conceded that Raman currently holds the upper hand in terms of campaign energy, noting that while the dynamic could theoretically be reversed, the challenger’s current advantage has created deep unease across the mayor’s political operation.
This unease is fueled by a relentless string of summer missteps, administrative crises, and political blunders that have battered City Hall. The mayor’s team has struggled to regain its footing amid cascading headlines that have overshadowed her policy agenda and raised uncomfortable questions about the administration's operational competence.
Among the most damaging episodes was a massive blaze at a commercial cold storage facility that sickened hundreds of area residents. The aftermath of the fire dragged on for nearly two months as emergency crews worked to dispose of millions of pounds of rotting food. The fallout intensified following disclosures that an unpaid, close confidant to the mayor was simultaneously performing crisis public relations work for the company operating the burned property.
The administration’s troubles were compounded by newly released municipal data revealing a slight increase in the city’s homeless population. The figures directly undercut Bass’s signature campaign narrative that her leadership had decisively reversed the city’s housing crisis. Further disruptions followed in both her campaign and official City Hall operations, where high-level staff reorganizations unfolded, along with embarrassment stemming from the campaign publicly promoting a dubious poll that was ultimately exposed as fraudulent.
Even the mayor’s attempts to showcase everyday governance backfired. In an effort to replicate viral social media outreach popularized by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Bass posted a video of herself attempting to personally patch a constituent-reported pothole, only to be blocked from completing the work by a parked vehicle. Although municipal crews repaired the street the following morning, the episode quickly turned into an online symbol for a clumsy and ineffective summer.
The political vulnerability confronting Bass marks a striking turn of events for a seasoned political figure who once stood on the national shortlist for the vice presidency. After seeing her popularity plummet following last year’s wildfires, Bass became the first incumbent Los Angeles mayor in more than two decades forced into a runoff election. Yet even after that setback, many political observers anticipated she would glide to victory once the field cleared.
Earlier in the campaign cycle, Bass appeared to enjoy ideal conditions for reelection. Her prominent 2022 rival, real estate developer Rick Caruso, chose not to mount a rematch. In addition, the mayor assembled an expansive political coalition that spanned from the city’s police union to Democratic Socialists of America-aligned officials, while securing the full backing of the state and national Democratic establishment, including Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris.
By contrast, Raman initially launched her mayoral campaign with negligible backing from major institutional power players, lacking endorsements from labor unions or fellow members of the Los Angeles City Council. In fact, Raman had previously been among the local officials who endorsed Bass.
That dynamic shifted dramatically over the past month as Raman secured crucial institutional backing, notably winning the endorsement of the carpenters union, which withdrew its prior support for Bass. Raman also landed the endorsement of Unite Here Local 11, a powerhouse hospitality union renowned for its formidable field organizing and voter mobilization operations, surprising observers who had previously written off her institutional viability.
In response to the tightening landscape, Bass’s campaign has pivoted toward an aggressive offensive aimed at diminishing Raman’s standing. The campaign rolled out an attack website and dedicated social media handle dubbing the challenger "No Show Nithya," criticizing her record for missed council votes. Bass supporters have largely welcomed the counterattacks as a long-overdue sign of combativeness from the mayor’s headquarters.
The campaign has also amplified criticisms from Councilmember Traci Park, who represents the Pacific Palisades. Park has publicly condemned Raman, alleging that the council member neglected the hillside community during the destructive aftermath of last year’s wildfire.
Outside political strategists argue that going on the attack represents Bass’s most viable path to victory. Democratic consultant Rick Taylor, who is not affiliated with the campaign, suggested that the mayor’s team needs to wage an exceptionally fierce campaign against Raman, arguing that aggressively highlighting the challenger’s vulnerabilities is essential for Bass to protect her position.
The mayor's official campaign leadership, however, dismisses the notion that the race is slipping away. Chief strategist Julie Chavez Rodriguez, a former Biden-Harris administration operative who took over the campaign helm from Doug Herman in June, maintained that internal metrics show consistent support. Chavez Rodriguez stressed that the campaign anticipated a close contest from the outset and emphasized that Bass continues to command a durable lead among her core base.
Bass also retains substantial financial superiority, entering the final stretch with a formidable fundraising lead and strong support from well-funded independent expenditure committees. Yet political analysts warn that leaning too heavily into harsh negative attacks carries significant risks for an incumbent whose brand has historically centered on consensus-building and broad-based coalition politics.
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